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How to forecast surf using online resources

How to forecast surf using online resources

These days you don’t need to be a weather geek or have a degree in meteorology to be able to vaguely predict the optimum surf times and swell size at your local beach.

Long gone are the Sundays in our household when no-one was allowed to speak during the weekly 7day forecast on the BBC to get an inkling of the surf to come or as a wee-nipper forced to listen to the sweet lullaby of the shipping forecast on Radio 4 (Cromarty, Dogger and German Bight were always the firm favourites in case you were wondering!!) Yes times well before the World Wide Web,  but now its all at our finger tips, fancy weather apps and swell forecasting websites but with so much information, often conflicting which can make it really tricky to decipher and understand, but what does it all really mean?

Yes a load of arrows, numbers, stars and rainbow colours all jumbled up in a wizzy chart, but the key elements to take notice of that influence surf conditions are as follows:

1. Wave Height: This indicates the size of the swell in the open ocean, usually measured in feet or meters. Higher wave heights generally mean bigger waves. Beginners may prefer smaller wave heights (1-3 feet), while more experienced surfers look for 4-6 feet or higher. Local conditions can influence how this translates to the beach.

2. Swell Period: The time (in seconds) between wave peaks. It gives an indication of the power and quality of the waves. Longer periods (12+ seconds) usually mean more powerful waves. Waves with shorter periods (under 10 seconds) are typically wind-driven and tend to be choppy, while longer periods indicate clean, well-formed swells generated further out to sea.

 3. Swell Direction: This tells you the angle at which the waves are approaching the coast. Check how the swell direction lines up with your beach. Some breaks work best with specific swell directions (e.g., a southwest swell might be ideal for certain west-facing beaches). The chart will usually show this with arrows or degrees.

  4. Wind Direction and Speed: onshore, offshore, or cross-shore wind directions  and speed influence wave shape and quality. Offshore winds (blowing from the land toward the sea) help hold the wave face up, creating cleaner, more rideable waves. Onshore winds (blowing from the sea toward the land) usually make waves messier. Light winds (under 10 mph) are generally best for surf conditions, and strong winds often create choppy, less desirable waves.

 5. Tide Times: The tide state, affects where the waves break and how they form, this hugely impacts surf and varies with all beach locations.  Each spot has its ideal tide. Some surf breaks work better on high tide, while others work best on low. Understanding how tides affect your beach is key, too high or too low can lead to waves that close out or don’t break as well.

6. Local Knowledge and Forecast Models: Forecasts from surf sites can be very helpful, but they’re not always precise due to the natural variability of conditions. Pair forecast data with local knowledge and surf reports whenever possible.

 Here’s a sample setup for ideal conditions:

- Wave Height : 3-5 feet-dreamy

-Swell Period: 10-12 seconds (long period) yippee

-Swell Direction: Matches beach alignment, at our local beaches it would be South West

-Wind: Light offshore winds;

- Tide: Depends on the spot; check the ideal tide for your beach, or ask a local.

 Reading charts and understanding these factors will help you get out on the water when the waves are at their best. And as always, a bit of trial and error combined with local insight will refine your sense for the perfect conditions at your favourite spot.

Our most used websites for forecasting swell and surf:

1. Windguru  🌬️: A favourite among surfers,  It provides detailed data on wind direction, intensity, and wave height. It's regularly updated so keep that finger on refresh!

2. XC Weather  ☁️: Renowned for giving real-time updates on wind speed and direction, along with temperature and precipitation data. It’s perfect for assessing overall weather conditions before checking the beach. 

3. Surfline  🌊:  Provides live surf reports, forecasts, and even surf cams from beaches around the world, with detailed analysis on swell and conditions.

 4.Cefas  🌐: The Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science offers marine forecasts, including tidal information and a list of wave buoys around the uk giving swell size, period and direction.

Weather chat particularly here in the UK is a national obsession and as we know very unpredictable, but that's part of the fun isn't it. Use these resources regularly, wisely and understand how they translate to your local beach, Good luck and go forth my little swell chasers.............See you at the beach in some neoprene!

 

 

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